The Art of Wealth and Influence
Chapter 53
"How is it?"
"I'm afraid it's tough. Even with a favorable view, it's 6-to-4, and as it stands, Izumikawa-san will lose 7-to-3."
Before the House of Councillors election, I asked Tachibana to analyze the election prospects for Yujiro-kun's older brother, Izumikawa Taichiro . The result was not good—in fact, it was downright bad.
"First of all, the scandal involving Izumikawa-san's father, who was forced to resign from the Ministry of Finance, has had a significant impact. Moreover, the fact that Taichiro-san is a newcomer is also a disadvantage."
"Why is being a newcomer bad?"
As I looked over the dozen or so reports on the table, I asked the question. Tachibana picked up one of the reports and handed it to me.
"The constituency where Izumikawa-san plans to run has two seats. One seat is taken by the ruling party and the other by the opposition. The ruling party candidate has more than twice the votes of the opposition candidate, but it's unlikely that this will be evenly split."
This process of dividing votes is known as "vote splitting." If the votes split evenly, both the ruling party candidate and Izumikawa-san could be elected. In theory, that is.
"The increase in independents will have a negative impact in this situation too. Most independents tend to vote for the opposition. Given that , many independents are concentrated in major cities like the prefectural capital, the opposition's votes are unlikely to decrease."
The opposition remains strong because independents in major urban areas are consolidated in their support. This group of independents won't wake up until after 2009, so let's set them aside for now. This leaves us with the ruling party's support base, which still dominates in rural areas.
"Politics relies heavily on obligations and personal ties. Many people owe favors to Izumikawa-san, the head of the faction and a candidate for the next Prime Minister. However, the scandal has given them a reason to decline support. Most likely, the ruling party candidate will pull away Izumikawa-san's supporters."
"This is why factional strife is such a problem..."
I held my head in my hands. The lack of prominence of the opposition in Japanese politics is partly due to the internal factional battles within the ruling party, Constitutional Democratic Party, which serve as a de facto change of government. In cases where two candidates from the same party are in the same constituency, they almost inevitably belong to different factions. While they are ostensibly allies, elections turn into a delightful spectacle of mutual undermining. The electoral reform of the 1990s had the goal of resolving this factional strife.
When such conflicts arise, it inevitably involves the central faction leadership in a grand squabble.
"So, what does the central faction say about this?"
The person in charge of the House of Councillors elections at the central party was Secretary-General Katou Kazuhiro. Tachibana had been probing for information and reported the results matter-of-factly.
"They say, 'Official endorsement is difficult. We'll consider it if he wins.'"
They're not enthusiastic. The central faction's election analysis also predicts Taichiro Izumikawa's defeat. Now, this is a problem. If Izumikawa-san loses here, resentment might be directed at me, seen as connected to Secretary-General Katou. Knowing the future, I want to minimize the risk of antagonizing Yujiro-kun.
"Isn't there any way to ensure avoid his election loss?"
Tachibana asked me, his gaze somewhat stern.
"Is this for Izumikawa Yujiro-sama?"
"Well, yes. I don't want things to turn sour just because of adult circumstances after we've gotten close."
I added a reason Tachibana couldn't refuse. Yujiro-kun should be proud of such a debt of gratitude.
"Moreover, during my kidnapping incident, he stood before the perpetrator along with everyone else. I haven't repaid that debt."
Tachibana sighed. Politics relies heavily on obligations and personal ties. Tachibana's words reflected my own determination.
"The constituency is tough. In that case, we have no choice but to go for proportional representation*. With the closed-list system, it's crucial where his name appears on the list."
[T/N - Proportional representation (PR) is an electoral system where seats in a legislative body are allocated based on the percentage of votes each party or candidate receives. Unlike winner-takes-all systems, which can lead to a disproportionate representation of parties, PR aims to reflect the diversity of voter preferences more accurately. This system allows smaller parties to gain representation in proportion to their share of the vote, which can lead to a more representative and multi-party system. There are various methods of PR, including list systems and single transferable vote systems.]
In that case, there are still options. We have connections with both Izumikawa-san and Secretary-General Katou.
"Let's use our connections and money for this."
For Secretary-General Katou, the bargaining chip is the chemical complex in Sakata and full support from the Keika-in Group is the deal.
"And for Izumikawa-san?"
I have a debt to Yujiro-kun, but with Izumikawa-san, it's more of a grudge because of the kidnapping incident at the his faction party. Therefore, I needed a different logic to convince Tachibana.
"Hokkaido."
Tachibana tilted his head at my words. I continued as he waited.
"With the rescue of Hokkaido Development Bank, the Keika-in Group established a foothold in the Hokkaido economic circle. Since the economy there relies on public works, the Keika-in Group will need a political representative."
Public works involve bringing central government funds to the regions. Having a representative with central connections makes a significant difference in securing these funds.
"So, you're suggesting using Izumikawa-san to approach dietman Izumikawa-san?"
"Even if forced to resign due to the scandal, he is still a major figure in the Ministry of Finance, having served as it's minister. For Keika-in, there's no better representative."
Tachibana sighed in resignation at my smile and confirmed.
"Politics is driven by money. Be prepared for a significant amount of donations."
"Oh? More expensive than the money we threw away during the Keika-in Bank rescue?"
Politics is expensive, but compared to the inflated cash figures in the money game, it's a minor expense. In fact, according to Tachibana's post-action report, the money spent this time amounted to around ten billion yen. For the Moonlight Fund, that was a trivial amount.
Later, when Yujiro-kun, trying to stay alone because his parent was in the midst of a scandal, passed by me, I heard him.
It was the day after the news broke that Taichiro Izumikawa had given up running locally and switched to proportional representation.
"Keika-in-san. Thank you."
He wouldn't want me to look back, and I wouldn't be so boorish as to do so. As I pretended not to hear, Eiichi-kun came up to me.
"Runa, did he say something to you?"
"Who knows? ...Wait, are you chasing after Yujiro-kun?"
"Yeah. He's trying to be alone out of consideration, but I don't like being considered like that. I'm going to stick to him."
"Good luck. I'm rooting for you."
"Yeah. Once I catch him, let's invite Mitsuya and go to Avanti."
After saying that, Eiichi-kun left. Watching him go, I slowly whispered a reply to Yujiro-kun into the air.
"You're welcome."
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Glossary
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【Election Analysis】
For this kind of analysis, a simple method is to compile election forecasts from newspapers and weekly magazines to get a sense of the trends. If you're willing to spend money and time, you can also look at recent election data. In House of Councillors, overlapping gubernatorial election data can be quite useful. If the House of Councillors candidate loses, there's a high probability the governor will lose too.
【Declining Support】
While supporters of the same party are generally balanced, the excuse of "there's a scandal, so let's take a break this time and support the other candidate" is strong. If there was a candidate who was declined wins, there's always retaliation, making factional battles very messy.
【Successful Vote Splitting Examples】
Hokkaido and Chiba in this year's(2019) House of Councillors election. A failure example is Hiroshima.
【Closed-List System】
A method where the party predetermines the order of candidates on the list, and seats are allocated based on the number of votes the party receives. Currently, the House of Councillors election uses a non-closed list system where individual candidates' names directly affect their chances. An example of a big success under this system is Dietman Yamada Taro, who gained 540,000 votes and made the "otaku vote" recognized by the Liberal Democratic Party. Note that the postal votes were only 600,000, which will be cut off later with independent support. Remember this when the silver-haired one makes his move.